3.2 Road Transport Decarbonisation

Figure 3.3 Population growth will increase demand on the national road network

2.7 million by 2040

Driving Employment

Increase

1.1 million increase by 2040

2.7 million more trips on our road

Population

Growth

2.2 million by 2040

networks everyday by

+500,000 More Homes

2040

Needed

3.2 Road Transport Decarbonisation

Adherence to Ireland’s decarbonisation goals poses a significant challenge for the road transport sector, including the National Roads network

Ireland’s Climate Action Plan has set an overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 51 percent by 2030, compared with 2018, and climate neutrality by 2050. In July 2022, the Government announced sectoral emissions ceilings where the overall target of 51 percent reduction by 2030 can only be met depending on the success of each sector of the Irish economy (electricity, transport, buildings, industry, and agriculture) meeting their individual ceiling targets. The transport sector’s ceiling for GHG emissions till 2030 was set to 6 Mega tonne CO2 equivalent5 .

The transport sector must play a significant role in this reduction, with a specific 42 percent - 51 percent target reduction by 2030. In 2020, road transport GHG emissions made up 94 percent of transport emissions in Ireland6. Especially concerning is the evidence that lockdown measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in a 16 percent decrease in transport emissions, compared to 20197 TII traffic counts showing that 2021 travel trends largely returned to 2019 pre-Covid levels8. Emissions from the sector are estimated to reduce to 39 percent below 2018 levels by 2030 if additional measures in plans and policies are implemented, including significant EV share by 2030 and measures to support more sustainable transport9.

5 Source: Department of the Taoiseach, 2022; gov.ie, ‘Government announces sectoral emissions ceilings, setting Ireland on a pathway to turn the tide on climate change’ 6 EPA Provisional Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Ireland, 2020 (October 2021) 7 EPA Provisional Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Ireland, 2020 (October 2021) 8 TII National Roads Network Indicators, 2021 9 EPA Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections, 2021-2040 (June 2022)

The NIFTI priorities around facilitating mobility of people and goods in urban areas and enhancing regional and rural connectivity must be achieved while minimising or reducing carbon emissions. Where we live, the places we travel to, the mode and frequency of travel, the occupancy levels of the vehicles in which we travel, the energy and technology underpinning our means of transport and traffic conditions, all contribute to GHG emissions. These factors must all be considered and understood when planning for a low carbon transport system. While TII has a limited role in behavioural change, the provision of high quality multi modal infrastructure has an important role in enabling and encouraging a modal shift to support a reduction in carbon emissions. The provision of multi-modal infrastructure in combination with improved public transport services will increase transport options on our road network, improving the mobility of people in urban areas and enhancing regional and rural connectivity in alignment with carbon reduction targets.

In an urban context, congestion causes inefficient vehicle engine performance and results in significantly elevated levels of vehicle emissions. This is a particular issue where heavy vehicles make up a sizable proportion of traffic. In an inter-urban travel context, where free-flow conditions contribute to more efficient engine performance, the key driver for carbon emissions is the length of the trip.

Figure from page 24

A shift to electric technology in the car fleet is a significant step towards decarbonisation of the road transport sector. This must be supported with provision of charging infrastructure along the National Roads network. The emissions from commercial and heavy vehicles must also be mitigated.

TII analysis finds that across the National and Regional Roads networks a significant proportion of personal trips are short in nature, typically less than 15 minutes duration10. These shorter trips are associated with colder engines, which leads to higher emissions. Interventions promoting a shift to low carbon options for these trips, using for example active travel along or adjacent to the National Roads network, would support efforts to reduce both congestion and emissions.

10 TII National Roads Network Indicators (2012-2021)