3.1 Future Demographic Growth Trends

3.1 Future Demographic Growth Trends

Demographic growth poses a challenge to maintaining and improving levels of service in road transport

According to Project Ireland 2040, Ireland’s population is expected to increase by up to 1.1 million people by the year 2040, increasing the population of Ireland upwards to approximately 5.9 million. It is anticipated that half of the future population and jobs growth will be focused on the five cities (Dublin, Cork, Galway, Limerick, and Waterford) and their suburbs. Additionally, it is expected that there will be a significant population increase in Ireland’s towns and some rural areas.

Figure 3.2 NPF target growth 2040 - a target of half (50 percent) of future population and employment growth will be focused in the existing five cities and their suburbs

2040 2017

+14.7% 2,570,000

+10.3% 1,500,000

2,190,000

1,345,402

Dublin

Cork

Limerick

Rest of Ireland

Waterford

Galway

TII analysis shows that this targeted population increase has the potential, if current travel behaviour continues, to increase the number of trips travelled on the national road network by 2.7 million per day. This represents an increase of over 20 percent trips per day by 2040 above a baseline figures of 13.4 million. This is in addition to an increase in the number of journeys made on Ireland’s local and regional roads.

If current current development patterns and associated travel behaviour continues, demographic growth will not only increase the demand for travel but may also increase car dependency. Currently 82 percent of Irish households own at least one car, with 41 percent of households owning two or more cars3. Accordingly, 67 percent of trips are made in privately owned cars4. These journeys are often facilitated by National Roads.

Demographic and employment growth pose a significant challenge in the effort to maintain and improve the level of service on the National Roads Network. Through the implementation of the Climate Action Plan, and the NR2040 investment priorities and mitigation measures, inter-urban demand for private vehicle trips can be mitigated.