3.4 | Future Network

3.4 | Future Network Analysis

barriers. Engaging in these activities at an early stage improves safety and mitigates the need for subsequent, more costly restoration work.

A specific example of the continuing constrained investment in protection and renewal activities funded through current expenditure is road improvement and maintenance. In 2008, the current allocation for this activity was €200m. By contrast, the allocation for this item of current expenditure in 2021 is €111m, representing a reduction of 45% in nominal terms.

The final element of NIFTI supporting analysis considers the potential needs and requirements of the future land transport network. Understanding the likely pressures and bottlenecks on the network in the coming years and decades can help ensure that investment is appropriately targeted to support the NPF.

Extensive modelling exercises have been conducted for a variety of future scenarios across the network, the most important of which is the 2040 Do-Minimum scenario. In this scenario, it is assumed that the population of Ireland will grow in accordance with NPF population and settlement projections out to 2040, with all the associated increase in travel demand that comes from that growth. To develop a sense of future infrastructure supply, it is also assumed that proposed transport investment under the NDP 2018-2027 is delivered. This excludes projects that received a commitment for pre-appraisal or consideration within the NDP 2018-2027. The purpose of these modelling exercises is to identify where there may be gaps in the future provision of transport to inform investment decisions and NIFTI. Effectively, the modelling indicates where additional interventions may be required, beyond those set out in the NDP, between now and 2040 to enable the NPF.

Unlike capital investment for which a mediumterm plan exists through the revised NDP, current allocations are subject to the annual Budgetary Estimates process. As such, while the revised NDP commits significant capital investment to protection and renewal, it is uncertain when the current expenditure component of asset protection and renewal will be restored to its precrisis levels.

Key Transport Challenge

Maintaining existing transport infrastructure and ensuring the resilience of the most strategically important parts of the network

It is important to note that this scenario is not necessarily realistic. It assumes that the population continues to grow until 2040 but that

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

there is no additional transport provision to cater for rising travel demand beyond the 2030 time horizon of the current NDP. In reality, some form of response from the transport sector would be inevitable, and in the absence of this response the actual population would not live in the modelled areas.

ENHANCING URBAN MOBILITY
	Bus Connects
Over 150m journeys were taken on Dublin Bus services in 2019. However, the network faces a number of challenges which have been compounded by rising passenger numbers and congestion in recent years. At present, there is a lack of continuous dedicated bus lanes in the city, with buses often sharing road space with other traffic. This results in poor journey time reliability and service quality for passengers. The existing structure of bus routes also largely provides connections on a radial basis, from suburbs to the city centre. This means there is a lack of direct services between the suburbs and results in multiple bus routes serving a single area. Finally, the existing fare structure needs to be simplified with an upgraded ticketing system that can accommodate modern contactless payment technology. BusConnects will alleviate these issues over a ten-year period through a number of deliverables. Some existing routes will be rationalised into high-capacity, high- frequency ‘spines’ which can accommodate additional services. Bus priority lanes are planned for each of these routes, with comprehensive cycling infrastructure delivered alongside. There will also be increased provision of orbital, intra- suburban bus services which will feed into the high-capacity spine routes. A simplified fare system and modern ticketing technology will be introduced. Finally, emissions will be reduced through the purchase of new low- and zero-emission buses. While Dublin is the first city to implement a BusConnects programme, all five cities will see their sustainable mobility systems similarly upgraded over time.

ENHANCING URBAN MOBILITY

Bus Connects

Over 150m journeys were taken on Dublin Bus services in 2019. However, the network faces a number of challenges which have been compounded by rising passenger numbers and congestion in recent years. At present, there is a lack of continuous dedicated bus lanes in the city, with buses often sharing road space with other traffic. This results in poor journey time reliability and service quality for passengers. The existing structure of bus routes also largely provides connections on a radial basis, from suburbs to the city centre. This means there is a lack of direct services between the suburbs and results in multiple bus routes serving a single area. Finally, the existing fare structure needs to be simplified with an upgraded ticketing system that can accommodate modern contactless payment technology. BusConnects will alleviate these issues over a ten-year period through a number of deliverables. Some existing routes will be rationalised into high-capacity, high- frequency ‘spines’ which can accommodate additional services. Bus priority lanes are planned for each of these routes, with comprehensive cycling infrastructure delivered alongside. There will also be increased provision of orbital, intra- suburban bus services which will feed into the high-capacity spine routes. A simplified fare system and modern ticketing technology will be introduced. Finally, emissions will be reduced through the purchase of new low- and zero-emission buses. While Dublin is the first city to implement a BusConnects programme, all five cities will see their sustainable mobility systems similarly upgraded over time.

To deliver compact growth, the NPF targets substantial population increases in all five of Ireland’s cities over the coming decades. Much of this growth is targeted to happen within existing urban footprints and lead to densification. Table 2 shows the targeted population increase for each of the five cities and the minimum associated population by 2040. This population is the basis for travel demand in the cities in 2040.

A consistent issue identified in the modelling for the five cities is congestion. This is especially widespread for Dublin and Cork, while Galway, Limerick and Waterford are projected to experience significant pressures on specific links. Congestion is a substantial drain on the economy, with research estimating that congestion in the Greater Dublin Area could cost more than €2bn annually by 2033—albeit in the absence of intervention.11 It also has significant adverse impacts on quality of life for the residents of cities.

Given space constraints, urban congestion will primarily have to be addressed by encouraging modal shift to sustainable modes. The provision of park and ride at strategic locations beyond the cities can increase the catchment of public transport and provide an alternative means of reaching the city centre. Within the cities, frequent and reliable public transport of sufficient capacity and high-quality active travel infrastructure can incentivise people to travel using sustainable modes rather than by car.

The role of further demand management solutions such as congestion charging and availability of parking should be explored. Sequencing will be a key consideration regarding such interventions, ensuring that demand-side measures do not precede the adequate provision of alternative transport options and discourage travel entirely.

To ensure that the entire city transport network operates efficiently, it is important that pressures at key junctions and links are addressed. It is notable that many of the links experiencing

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

capacity issues in the modelling are adjacent to public transport hubs, such as train stations, or are at locations with few alternative links available, such as roundabouts and bridges.

ENCOURAGING COMPACT GROWTH
	Transport- orientated development
Efef ctive planning and land use strategies encourage the use of sustainable mobility and contribute to liveable communities. Dún Laoghaire is an example of this in practice. In keeping with the principles of transit- oriented development, densities in the immediate vicinity of the DART station are higher than the town average. Dún Laoghaire is also the terminus for well- serviced bus routes, while residents are within walking distance of a range of local amenities, including shops, cultural centres, and blue and green space. Dún Laoghaire also has a high proportion of households without a car. Crucially, although no-car households often correlate with deprivation, this is not the case in Dún Laoghaire. This suggests that many residents choose not to own a car due to the walkability of their neighbourhood and the availability of sustainable mobility modes. Combined with competitive journey times to the city centre when compared with the private car, the comprehensive provision of sustainable mobility likely contributes to the modal split of the Dún Laoghaire Local Electoral Area, in which 46% of people commuted using a sustainable mode according to 2016 Census figures.

ENCOURAGING COMPACT GROWTH

Transport- orientated development

Efef ctive planning and land use strategies encourage the use of sustainable mobility and contribute to liveable communities. Dún Laoghaire is an example of this in practice. In keeping with the principles of transit- oriented development, densities in the immediate vicinity of the DART station are higher than the town average. Dún Laoghaire is also the terminus for well- serviced bus routes, while residents are within walking distance of a range of local amenities, including shops, cultural centres, and blue and green space. Dún Laoghaire also has a high proportion of households without a car. Crucially, although no-car households often correlate with deprivation, this is not the case in Dún Laoghaire. This suggests that many residents choose not to own a car due to the walkability of their neighbourhood and the availability of sustainable mobility modes. Combined with competitive journey times to the city centre when compared with the private car, the comprehensive provision of sustainable mobility likely contributes to the modal split of the Dún Laoghaire Local Electoral Area, in which 46% of people commuted using a sustainable mode according to 2016 Census figures.

Investment beyond the cities can help address pressures on urban infrastructure if traffic is diverted from entering the city centre, creating more space for sustainable mobility solutions. For example, the modelling suggests that this will be a result of the proposed Galway City Ring Road, by diverting east-west traffic which currently has to travel through the city around the city instead. As far as possible, infrastructure investment should take trips out of cities and towns which do not inherently need to be there, such as heavy goods vehicles travelling to ports via urban areas.

Achieving modal shift away from the private car and towards sustainable modes will help to alleviate issues of congestion and will also be crucial to Ireland meeting its climate change goals. Generally speaking, the Do-Minimum scenario modelling suggests that NDP investment will help to increase the modal share for public transport, but indicates that active travel mode share will remain the same or decline in the absence of additional intervention. Part of this decline may be due to the availability of more attractive public transport options, though it should also be noted that much of the future cycling offering has been modelled by proxy in the absence of detailed designs at this time. Investment in good quality cycling infrastructure, including segregated lanes, parking and bike sharing, has been a driver of modal shift elsewhere. The revised NDP 2021- 2030 sets out details of a new National Active Travel Programme with funding of €360 million annually for the period from 2021 to 2025. A new National Cycling Strategy is to be developed by the end of 2022, and will map existing cycling infrastructure in both urban and rural areas to inform future planning and project delivery decisions in relation to active travel.

A number of sites have been identified within the existing footprints of our cities for special development. Transport-orientated development is an approach that seeks to maximise the amount of new housing, employment and services provided in close proximity to highquality transport connections. In this way, the transport sector can facilitate compact growth and improved quality of life.

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

Interventions to encourage modal shift have been found to be much more effective in a brief window just after someone moves home. Many areas earmarked for development are located adjacent to existing rail links but in others there may be an opportunity to encourage modal shift by ensuring that high-quality sustainable mobility services and infrastructure are in place when the first residents move in. Again, the appropriate sequencing of interventions will be a foremost consideration for future investment.

issues also affect travellers in the North West and North East. Significant delays will also be a problem on the radial routes into and out of Ireland’s cities. It will therefore be necessary for some investment in improved interurban connectivity. Where appropriate, this should include improvements to public transport services, both rail- and road-based.

The National Strategic Outcomes point to a number of priorities for the interurban network. Improving capacity and capability will support successful communities, deliver high-quality transport and promote balanced economic development, particularly as investment would necessarily be primarily focused outside the Eastern region on the basis of the needs identified. To ensure that interurban travel is clean and low-carbon, it will also be necessary to encourage modal shift to public transport through improved services and to transition away from fossil fuel vehicles and towards alternative fuels and technologies. The transition to low-emission vehicles will also require the development of lowcarbon energy sources and a national network of charging infrastructure.

Key Transport Challenge

Increasing sustainable mode share to reduce emissions and address urban congestion

Balanced regional development is another of the central outcomes of the NPF. Improved accessibility between regions and between urban areas will be crucial in achieving this NSO. To support this objective, the NPF sets a target of improving interurban journey times by increasing average speeds to 90km/h between the five cities and five regional centres.

The role of the rail network, including its scope and service levels, needs to be considered in detail. This should include examination of the possibility of introducing higher-/high-speed rail and increased use of the rail network by freight.

In addition, interurban investment needs are competing for limited public funding not only with each other but with investment needs in urban areas and in rural areas. There are interdependencies between these different parts of the network. Improved interurban transport links could, without careful design and land use planning, lead to urban sprawl. Similarly, there can be a trade-off between rural accessibility and interurban journey speeds.

As well as enabling balanced and sustainable regional development, improved interurban connectivity benefits transport users through improved journey times and journey reliability, which increases productivity and makes more time available for leisure activities. Improved safety levels generally result from high-quality infrastructure. With coordinated land use policies, improvements to interurban transport links can increase economic productivity in urban centres and their regions.

Key Transport Challenge

NIFTI supporting analysis indicates that there will be challenges on the National Roads network by 2040 in the Do-Minimum scenario, particularly on the links connecting urban centres other than Dublin. The southern cities of Cork, Limerick and Waterford are projected to have disproportionately long journey times between each other given geographical distances. Similar

Improving interurban connectivity, particularly in the South, North West and North East

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

While half of the population growth over coming decades is targeted at the cities and towns, it is worth reiterating that the other half is targeted at smaller urban and rural areas. If the NPF is to be achieved, rural Ireland must be an attractive place to live and work, with reasonable access to services and amenities.

ENSURING ACCESSIBILITY
	Lifeline roads on the Dingle peninsula
A ‘lifeline’ road is one which has few available alternatives. Failure of these roads adversely impacts on the accessibility of the surrounding area, leaving the communities they serve exposed to severe disruption and significant increases in journey times. The Dingle Peninsula is an example of an area which is particularly dependent on lifeline roads. Because of its isolated geographic position, the area is reliant on two roads, the N86 and R561, which provide the only access on and of fthe Peninsula. These roads are vital for providing access for goods and tourism, and local residents’ access to hospitals and airports. The roads are located within 10km of each other meaning that there is a heightened risk of both of them becoming inoperable at the same time in the event of area-wide weather disruption. Modelling by TII indicates that the closure of just the N86 would have a similarly significant impact on increasing journey times as the closure of all the roads on the peninsula. This demonstrates the importance of the N86 in providing access and connectivity to the area, and emphasises that maintaining the usability of this road is essential to preserving and strengthening communities living and working on the Dingle peninsula. Because of the high social and economic cost of the failure of lifeline roads on local communities, maintaining their operability must be a high priority. This may require the maintenance of lifeline roads to be considered separately from the general upkeep of the road network.

ENSURING ACCESSIBILITY

Lifeline roads on the Dingle peninsula

A ‘lifeline’ road is one which has few available alternatives. Failure of these roads adversely impacts on the accessibility of the surrounding area, leaving the communities they serve exposed to severe disruption and significant increases in journey times. The Dingle Peninsula is an example of an area which is particularly dependent on lifeline roads. Because of its isolated geographic position, the area is reliant on two roads, the N86 and R561, which provide the only access on and of fthe Peninsula. These roads are vital for providing access for goods and tourism, and local residents’ access to hospitals and airports. The roads are located within 10km of each other meaning that there is a heightened risk of both of them becoming inoperable at the same time in the event of area-wide weather disruption. Modelling by TII indicates that the closure of just the N86 would have a similarly significant impact on increasing journey times as the closure of all the roads on the peninsula. This demonstrates the importance of the N86 in providing access and connectivity to the area, and emphasises that maintaining the usability of this road is essential to preserving and strengthening communities living and working on the Dingle peninsula. Because of the high social and economic cost of the failure of lifeline roads on local communities, maintaining their operability must be a high priority. This may require the maintenance of lifeline roads to be considered separately from the general upkeep of the road network.

Rural communities rely on urban areas for accessing certain services. The development of the national transport network will therefore be vital to enhancing access to services for people in rural Ireland. Continued investment in urban transport networks will aid those living in rural areas as well.

Due to the low density of rural Ireland, providing comprehensive public transport is not as feasible or viable as in more densely populated areas. Services such as Local Link have an important role to play in ensuring accessibility and reducing the volume of trips made by car. However, significant modal shift to public transport is unlikely in rural areas and the primary method of travel can be expected to remain the private car. Therefore, as with interurban transport, ensuring that an increasing proportion of private car trips are taken in low-emission vehicles will be important for reducing emissions.

Regional and local roads serve an important economic role in a local context and have valuable social and community functions. The provision of suitable road infrastructure will also be essential in ensuring accessibility for inhabitants of rural areas. The national secondary, and regional and local road networks in particular are important infrastructure that support mobility within rural areas and provide access to the national interurban network.

Infrastructure resilience is a particularly important consideration in rural areas. Some areas are served only by a small number of important roads, perhaps even just one. If any of these links are disrupted, a large number of potential journeys may not take place at all. The failure of such ‘lifeline’ links can have significant accessibility impacts for rural communities. Increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change could therefore be especially damaging for communities in rural Ireland reliant on lifeline roads.

Given the capacity that exists on the regional and local road network, significant new infrastructure

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

may be unnecessary in the coming decades. Investment should protect and renew existing assets and ensure infrastructure is resilient to extreme weather events. Targeted interventions may also be required for safety and to support socioeconomic development. Prioritising these investment requirements will support rural communities and ensure access to markets for rural industries.

MetroLink will be crucial to maintaining adequate surface access and ensuring sufficient capacity on key strategic links for freight.

Key Transport Challenge

Ensuring the future capacity of key strategic links to Ireland’s international gateways

Key Transport Challenge

Safeguarding accessibility for rural Ireland by protecting and renewing existing infrastructure

A final area considered in NIFTI supporting analysis is how unanticipated shocks or accelerations of existing trends, such as the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, can result in different travel demands, patterns and behaviours than those projected in the existing transport models. It is possible that short-term changes to travel patterns brought about by such shocks may develop into long-term, permanent features of the transport landscape, affecting key transport investment considerations such as commuting patterns and modal choice.

Ireland has one of the most open economies in the world and an economic model that promotes foreign direct investment, which requires effective and efficient strategic connections with the rest of the world. Ports and airports are essential to Ireland’s international competitiveness and attractiveness as a visitor destination.

NIFTI is informed by extensive analysis using TII’s National Transport Model and the NTA’s five Regional Transport Models. While these models are valuable tools in the transport planning process, they are developed and calibrated using observed travel behaviour and trends. It is necessary to understand these assumptions in relation to travel patterns, economic conditions and settlement patterns, and what would happen were any of these key variables to change significantly.

As an island nation, ports are necessary for international trade and handled approximately 99% of Ireland’s trade tonnage in 2017. The tier one ports of Dublin, Cork and Shannon Foynes handle the vast majority of maritime freight and are therefore especially important.

Irish airports are a driver of inward direct investment, handling tens of millions of passengers every year. While only approximately 1% of Irish freight tonnage moves through Irish airports, air freight represents 35% of the value of all Irish imports and exports. Dublin airport is particularly important and accounts for 85% of aviation passenger numbers and 91% of air freight handled.

To assess the impact that external developments and shocks could have, a number of alternative demand scenarios, such as a significant increase in the numbers engaging in teleworking or e-commerce, were examined at a high level as illustrative case studies as part of the supporting analysis. These case studies demonstrate how underlying changes in travel behaviour can have significant impacts on future network requirements. They also highlight the value of adopting scenario analysis as part of the transport

A growing population will put increased pressure on these key international gateways. There are also planned capacity expansions at Dublin airport, Dublin port and Shannon Foynes port. An increase in the public transport modal share of travel to these facilities through projects such as

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

planning process, which can lead to enhanced adaptability and help guard against the impacts of unanticipated change.

Key Transport Challenge

Ensuring that transport investment decisions are robust to unanticipated shocks and uncertainty

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