3.3 | Current Network

3.3 | Current Network Analysis

A key determinant of investment in the land transport system is the annual cost of asset protection and renewal, or ‘steady state’. This represents the minimum level of investment necessary to maintain existing assets, including any upgrades necessary for reasons of safety and accessibility, and meeting the costs arising from existing contractual commitments such as publicprivate partnerships (PPPs). Ensuring that assets are maintained in an adequate condition is crucial to realising the full benefits of past investment.

Table 1 shows the estimated annual cost of maintaining the various parts of the network in an adequate condition. The overall protection and

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

Table 1: Estimated average annual funding requirement for asset protection and renewal, 2018 to 2040

	Overall Cost (€m)	Department of Transport Share (€m)
National Roads	548	344
Regional and Local Roads	630	530
Heavy Rail	350	269
Luas	51	23
Bus	119	119
Integration Initiatives	13	13
Total	1,712	1,299

renewal requirement is estimated to be €1.7bn in 2018 prices, though not all of this is met by the Department of Transport. A certain amount of asset protection and renewal is covered by TII reinvesting revenue generated through their tolling operations, Local Authorities contributing to the maintenance of regional and local roads from their own resources, and transport operators’ revenue. Accounting for these factors, the estimated annual cost of asset protection and renewal attributable to the Department of Transport is €1.3bn—though it should be noted that funding from alternative sources may not always be available at present levels.

requirements were not fully met for a number of years and this has led to the degradation of some assets and the operation of public transport vehicles beyond their normal working life. Constrained investment due to the fiscal consolidation effort has seen the perceived quality of Ireland’s road and rail infrastructure deteriorate in recent years, based on the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey of business leaders, and Ireland’s land transport infrastructure is now the lowest ranked in Western Europe.8 From an average of 1.44% of GDP being invested in land transport annually between 1999 and 2011, by 2015 just 0.44% was invested.

While the previous and revised NDPs represent a step change in transport investment, it is important to note that restoring degraded assets to an adequate condition now is likely to be more expensive than if they had been maintained in an adequate condition over the past decade. The World Bank estimates that, on average, repairing a neglected stretch of road is three times more expensive than prompt maintenance.9 Similarly, analysis carried out by TII suggests that underspending on pavement renewal by €100m annually will save €2bn on renewal costs over 20 years but the outstanding costs of restoration at the end of the period will be €3bn—i.e., shortterm savings on renewal cost 50% more in the long run.10

There are a number of caveats to note with this estimate. Firstly, implicit in the revised NDP is an increase in asset protection and renewal costs over time as new infrastructure is developed. In terms of infrastructure supply, the estimates above relate to the network as it currently exists. A number of significant new pieces of transport infrastructure are expected to be delivered by 2030 under the revised NDP and these will add maintenance and operation costs to the network. On the demand side, the population increase of one million by 2040 can be expected to place additional pressures on infrastructure also, perhaps necessitating increased protection and renewal spending.

It is also assumed here that the current condition of the network is adequate throughout. However, as a result of the financial crisis, maintenance

Protection and renewal costs also face upward pressure in the years ahead from climate change.

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

Rising sea levels, more intense storm and rainfall events, and increased river and coastal flooding are all likely. Such events will have a significant impact on the transport network, with disruption to even small sections having potentially large effects.

ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
	August 2017 flooding in Donegal
There is likely to be a substantial increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the winter and autumn months due to climate change. The Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Transport identifies the increase in extreme precipitation levels and the resulting increase in flooding as a high priority risk for the transport sector. In August 2017, the remnants of Hurricane Gert hit the northwest of Ireland, which saw 63% of August’s average annual rainfall fall in just nine hours. The rainfall led to severe flooding in the region, with the Inishowen peninsula in Donegal experiencing the worst of the damage. As a result of the flooding, bridges collapsed and cars were washed away, while homes, community amenities, farmland and other properties were destroyed. The total cost to the Exchequer of the damage was €14.3m. This included substantial road repairs to address over 600 issues which were identified along the 1,500km road network in the area and repairs to 115 damaged bridges. Rural areas which are served by only a small number of roads and public transport services are particularly vulnerable to these impacts. As such, there is a need to identify key local links and infrastructure at risk from extreme weather and prioritise early investment, in order to build resilience, save lives and reduce the Exchequer impact in the medium- to long-term.

The National Adaptation Framework sets out the national strategy to reduce Ireland’s vulnerability to the negative effects of climate change. In line with its requirements, the Department of Transport has prepared a Transport Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan which was approved by Government in October 2019. As well as identifying the key sectoral risks and priorities, the Sectoral Plan recommends 21 adaptation actions. These will increase knowledge and understanding of the likely impacts of climate change on the sector, support stakeholders in identifying and prioritising risks, and assist in the implementation of adaptation measures to improve resilience across the sector.

Many adaptation measures include considerable engineering and construction undertakings that amend or alter transport infrastructure and the surrounding environment. Costs associated with adaptation can therefore be high. The main reactive cost for the transport sector is associated with the repair and reconstruction of land transport infrastructure. Preventive costs include improving drainage, reinforcing bridges and elevating road and rail lines.

While provision is made in the transport budget each year for winter maintenance, supplemental funding of €100m was required between 2014 and 2016 to repair damage to the network caused by extreme weather events. If the frequency and severity of such events increase, the reactive adaptation costs will rise also. Nevertheless, while adaptation measures may be expensive, it can be expected that the costs of implementing an effective and well-planned adaptation strategy will be a fraction of costs incurred if no adaptation measures were introduced.

Finally, while the NDP commits to meeting most transport asset protection and renewal costs, this only relates to capital expenditure. There is also a significant element of current expenditure involved with asset protection and renewal, covering activities such as the resealing of road surfaces, drainage works and the provision and maintenance of signs, markings, traffic signals and

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

Table 2: National Planning Framework targeted pattern of city population growth

City	Population 2016	Population Growth to 2040		Minimum Target Population 2040
		%	People
Dublin	1,173,000	20-25	235,000-293,000	1,408,000
Cork	209,000	50-60	105,000-125,000	314,000
Limerick	94,000	50-60	47,000-56,000	141,000
Galway	80,000	50-60	40,000-48,000	120,000
Waterford	54,000	50-60	27,000-32,000	81,000