3.2 | Context and

3.2 | Context and Background

From the perspective of future travel demand, the population and settlement targets contained in the National Planning Framework indicate the areas where we expect demand for travel to increase in the future if our spatial objectives are realised. With half of population growth between now and 2040 targeted to happen within the five cities, our urban transport systems will have to cope with many more trips than is currently the case. Accommodating this growth sustainably will mean, above all, investment in active travel and public transport. The objective of rebalancing future population growth so that half takes place in the Northern and Western Region and the Southern Region combined will also require development of accessible centres of scale and supporting transport infrastructure. This includes

From comprising around a third of all land transport expenditure in the mid-2000s, sustainable mobility—meaning active travel and public transport—has taken up an increasing share of investment in recent years (Figure 3). This trend

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

Figure 4: Revised National Development Plan 2021-2030 annual investment in transport, 2021 to 2025

3,000

2,526
2,058								2,405
1,643
1,327

2,500

2,000

(€m)

1,500

1,000

500

0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

is set to continue, with the revised NDP stating that prioritisation of projects will be in line with the Programme for Government commitment that investment in new public transport and new roads will be at a ratio of 2:1. It is also worth noting that investing in roads supports bus-based transport, which is the predominant mode of public transport in much of the country.

measure also peaked in 2008, at 2.23%, before declining steeply to just 0.64% in 2013. Under the revised NDP, gross investment in transport will increase in the next five years, but still fall short of historical levels as a share of GNI*, with projected investment ranging between 1.00% and 1.15% between 2021 and 2025. Figure 4 shows the annual capital allocation for transport between 2021 and 2025 as set out in the revised NDP.3

While the NDP 2018-2027 represented a step change in public capital investment, which has since been maintained by the NDP 2021-2030, it is nevertheless important to note that as a share of national income investment in transport will be below historical levels in the coming years. Taking a long-run average, between 1953 and 2011 an estimated 1.13% of GDP was invested in land transport annually—though this average disguises the peaks and troughs which occurred over that period. The most significant of these peaks took place between 1999 and 2011, when land transport investment averaged 1.44% of GDP annually, reaching 1.86% in 2008.

Given planned investment levels, the significant cost of protecting and renewing existing transport assets, and the substantial funding commitments made to new projects in the revised NDP, careful management of available resources will be necessary over the coming years.

01

Key Transport Challenge

Balancing the protection and renewal of existing assets with significant investment in new infrastructure within available resources

Considering modified Gross National Income, or GNI*, as a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, between 1995 and 2019 transport investment averaged 1.29%. This

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

Climate change and climate breakdown represent another central piece of the context for NIFTI. Ireland has made EU and international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and almost one fifth of our emissions are attributable to the transport sector. It will therefore be necessary to decarbonise the transport sector if the worst effects of climate change are to be mitigated.

Key Transport Challenge

Decarbonising the transport sector while facilitating increased travel demand

This challenge is underlined by the fact that transport emissions have risen by a disproportionate amount in recent decades. Between 1990 and 2016 Irish greenhouse gas emissions rose by 10.5%, while the equivalent increase in the transport sector was over 13 times greater at 138.9%.4

Brexit and its potential impact on Ireland’s connectivity is another challenge that NIFTI considers. Following the June 2016 vote to exit the European Union, the United Kingdom officially ceased to be an EU Member State on 31 January 2020. Following a transition period during which the future relationship between the EU and UK was negotiated, from 1 January 2021 new trading arrangements are in place between the two. The long-term impact of this new relationship on trade will become clear over time, but adjustment to freight transport patterns can already be observed compared to previous decades.

The Environmental Protection Agency projects an increase in transport energy demand of 23% by 2035 compared to 2015 levels and, in the absence of additional policy interventions, an increase in sectoral emissions of 11.3% between 2020 and 2035.5 Given these projections, there is an urgent need to break the historic correlation between transport emissions on the one hand and travel demand and economic growth on the other.

Ireland is one of the most peripheral countries in the EU, particularly west of Dublin, and the departure of the United Kingdom has increased this peripherality. Prior to Brexit, large volumes of Irish trade with the rest of the EU travelled via UK ports. A 2018 study carried out by the Irish Maritime Development Office estimates that the total value of this ‘landbridge’ trade was €21.4bn in 2016, representing 30.9% of total Irish trade with the EU valued at €69.4bn.6 While some of this trade has moved to direct sailings to the EU, for time sensitive goods in exposed sectors disruption to the landbridge poses an acute challenge.

There are actions which can be taken to prevent carbon emissions rising while facilitating increased transport demand. Encouraging modal shift to sustainable modes, promoting cleaner fuel technologies, demand management, and improved integration between transport, planning and land use will all be crucial.

To strike this balance between increased travel demand and reduced emissions, as well as setting a target of almost 1 million low-emission cars on the road by 2030, the Climate Action Plan targets that all replacements for bus and commuter rail vehicles and carriages be low or zero carbon by 2030. At a higher level, developments in communications technology may mitigate trip demand also.

To preserve Ireland’s international connectivity, a variety of investments in our transport infrastructure may be required. New shipping routes and investment in air freight for time sensitive goods may be necessary. Ports may need to be expanded to accommodate larger ships and provide space for additional customs checks. While NIFTI is primarily a framework for investment in the land transport network rather than the aviation or maritime sectors, surface interventions which contribute to Ireland’s international connectivity may be necessary following Brexit and are supported by the framework.

As well as being an important source of emissions, the transport sector is also particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. On the land transport network, these impacts include increased flood risk, coastal erosion and the degradation of infrastructure due to more frequent extreme weather events.

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Identifying the Challenges

Brexit also sees a realignment of the Trans- European Transport Network, the EU-wide network of railways, roads, waterways, shipping routes, ports and airports. The objective of developing this network is to strengthen social, economic and territorial cohesion across the EU and the TEN-T Regulation stipulates that the core network be completed by 2030. Within the core network are 10 core network corridors, which aim to facilitate the coordinated development of the network. Ireland is part of the North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor, which runs from Ireland to the south coast of France via Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Prior to Brexit, the UK was also on this corridor. Following a 2021 realignment in response to Brexit, Ireland has also now joined the Atlantic Corridor and is part of two TEN-T corridors for the first time. This has created additional connections between Irish ports and ports in France, Belgium and the Netherlands, with the Atlantic Corridor also extending to Spain and Portugal.

allowing them to choose the one that suits them best. Individuals do not need to possess their own means of transport but instead access transport services on demand. This concept is well-established in cycling in the form of public bike share schemes, such as those in Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick. Combined with mobile technology, if such schemes came to cover private cars and public transport it is conceivable that on-demand services delivered by shared taxi type vehicles could be an important part of the future public transport offering, in both rural and urban areas.

Demonstrating the potential of MaaS, in 2018 the International Transport Forum (ITF) published a study that simulated the impact of widespread, shared taxi-type mobility in Dublin. The study estimates that just 2% of the current number of private vehicles could deliver the existing volume of trips within the Greater Dublin Area with substantial reductions in emissions and congestion, more cheaply and with increased social equity.7 Even if just a fifth of private car trips were replaced by shared modes, the study estimates that emissions would fall by 22% and congestion by 7%. These simulations suggest taxi-type shared mobility could play an important role in decarbonising the transport sector in the coming years.

In terms of cross-border connectivity, the Withdrawal Agreement reached between the UK and the EU in November 2019 has seen Northern Ireland adopt Single Market regulations on goods and act as an entry point to the Customs Union. This protocol prevents a hard border being imposed between the two jurisdictions which, among other things, would have a substantial negative impact on connectivity in the North West

A related innovation that could significantly impact the transport sector in the coming years is connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). Legal, regulatory, policy and technological factors will determine how soon CAVs become commonplace on roads, but their potential impacts include improved safety, reduced congestion and large economic benefits as road capacity is used more efficiently, transport costs are reduced and productivity increases. Developments in CAVs could support the NPF National Policy Objectives of making stronger urban places and supporting people, homes and communities—though there is also a risk that they might encourage urban sprawl if people become more willing to travel longer commutes.

03

Key Transport Challenge

Supporting Ireland’s international connectivity through appropriate surface investment

A final contextual consideration for NIFTI is technological development in the transport sector, particularly innovations facilitated by the internet and advances in communications technology.

Infrastructure development in Ireland should facilitate the interaction of intelligent transport systems. Across all areas of future technological change, the approach must be forwardlooking and open-minded—to ensure both the interventions necessary to facilitate beneficial

Mobility as a service (MaaS) is about providing travellers with a range of mobility options and

National Investment Framework for Transport in Ireland | Project Ireland 2040

developments, and the avoidance of costly errors through premature commitment to regulatory or physical infrastructure which ultimately becomes inefficient or obsolete.

INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGY
	Enhanced Motorway Operation Services
The integration of technology has significant potential to improve travel conditions on existing infrastructure. This could be particularly valuable on routes of strategic importance where increasing capacity is not viable, such as the M50. One such initiative is the enhancing Motorway Operation Services (eMOS) framework and Cooperative Intelligent Transport System (C-ITS) pilot. Together, the eMOS framework and C-ITS pilot include a set of technology-driven solutions to help optimise traffic flow on the M50 and enhance Ireland’s existing motorway assets in a safe, efficient and sustainable manner. This will reduce the adverse impact of future traffic growth on service levels on a key strategic link. Real-time data from automatic incident detection, number plate recognition cameras, and other communications and roadside infrastructure will be processed and communicated to road users through electronic signs or in-vehicle systems. This will provide a dynamic management system that proactively works to smooth traffic flow and reduce the number of ‘shockwaves’ caused by turbulent vehicle movements, such as heavy braking and lane weaving. This will optimise the efficiency of the road and improve emissions, road safety and journey time reliability for road users. Similar systems have been implemented and demonstrated to work in the UK and elsewhere.

Finally, while NIFTI supporting analysis focused predominantly on emerging transport technologies, transport planning cannot be considered in isolation; rather, it should be considered in relation to society’s accessibility needs. This means we need to consider the relationship between transport, the built environment and digital connectivity. For example, the rollout of the National Broadband Plan and Making Remote Work: National Remote Working Strategy, combined with the development of technologies which help facilitate remote working has the potential to change working habits and associated travel demand.

04

Key Transport Challenge

Incorporating innovative and emerging technologies within the future transport system