Positive Trends

In view of the sectoral emissions ceilings in place, a significant programme of work was undertaken to refresh, revalidate and recalibrate the decarbonisation pathway for transport. This was set out in CAP 2023 which identified that an additional basket of measures would be needed to bridge the above ‘gap’, estimated to be 2. MtCO2 equivalent (see Figure 1 Gap-To-Target).

The reduction in transport emissions from 2023 to 2024 also suggests that emissions from the transport sector have peaked and demonstrates the positive impact of demand management and decarbonisation measures introduced in recent years with increases in the use of biofuels and electric vehicles being major factors behind the emissions decrease.

A similar programme of work is underway again, given the latest Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections for transport. The Corrective Action Modelling Project, signalled in the Climate Action Plan 25 (CAP25), will consider all potential measures and identify what is feasible over the remaining period, taking account of just transition principles, in terms of bridging the gap to target.

That said, in relation to Carbon Budget Period 1, the transport sector has emitted 46.28 MtCO2eq. (86%) in the first four years (2021-2024). It is probable that 2025 will be broadly on par with 2024 (11.65 MtCO2eq), and therefore any overshoot beyond ~7.7 MtCO2eq. 2025 would be deducted from the allowable ceiling for 2026-2030 of 37MtCO2eq. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect that the 2026-2030 budget may be reduced to 33MtCO2eq., or 6.6 MtCO2eq. per annum.

This Strategy is intended to provide an overarching framework for the delivery of a range of potential behavioural change measures that can be deployed to manage transport demand and to bridge the above ‘gap’ in a fair and equitable manner. It will play a key role in contributing to specific CAP targets such as achieving a reduction of 20% in total vehicle kilometres by 2030.

In line with the pledge in the Programme for Government to take sustained action to tackle the climate crisis and to decarbonise the economy, there remains an urgent need, therefore, to continue to tackle emissions and to avoid jeopardising the sector’s capacity to achieve its targets in future years. Further and sustained decoupling of the direct correlation between transport emissions and wider social and economic activity thus forms the fundamental challenge for the sector.

Emissions Trajectory

The achievement of the 50% reduction in transport emissions must be consistent with the Government’s carbon reduction programme, which includes a sectoral emissions ceiling of 54 MtCO2eq. for the first carbon budget period (2021-2025), and a further reduced sectoral emissions ceiling of 37 MtCO2eq. over the second carbon budget period (2026-2030).

Positive Trends

Positive changes are already happening in terms of travel behaviour. Passenger numbers across Public Service Obligation (PSO) services reached an all-time high in 2025 with almost 53 million additional journeys taken when compared to 2023. This is the third consecutive year of record-breaking figures, with patronage rates now exceeding pre-2019 levels.

Based on the latest EPA inventory (1990 – 2024), in total, the domestic transport sector emitted 11.65MtCO2eq. in 2024, compared to 11.79MtCO2eq. in 2023 – a reduction of 1.2%. Transport emissions are now 5.4% below pre- COVID levels and 2024 marked the first post- COVID emissions decrease in the transport sector.

As well as being unique internationally, this trend provides evidence that people respond to policies that are well considered and responsive to their needs. For example, under the National Sustainable Mobility Policy, the Connecting Ireland Rural Mobility Programme delivered new rural bus services in towns and villages at a rate of approximately one new service every week in 2022, with over 140,000 weekly vehicle kilometres added to the public transport network

This was achieved against a backdrop of economic growth (as expressed by modified final domestic demand) of 2.7% during 2024 and population growth of 1.9% to April 2024, thus indicating an absolute decoupling of transport emissions from economic growth.